看好收购后协同效应,中国A股市场反应过度

    毛利预测和投资评级:买入评级。公司古板业务发展稳健,收购欧神诺后切入高等瓷砖领域,洁具、瓷砖双主业协同发展。基于严谨性思虑,在首要资金财产重组未有做到前,暂不思索其对公司业绩及资本的熏陶,大家推测公司2017-今年EPS为0.68元、0.83元、0.91元,对应当前PE72倍、58倍、54倍;依照欧神诺2017-二〇一七年业绩承诺1.63亿元、1.92亿元、2.28亿元,收购完毕后并入98.4%股权对应归母净利,臆度集团2017-二〇一三年EPS为1.59元、1.90元、2.20元(已摊薄),对应该前PE30倍、26倍、22倍,第一遍覆盖给予“买入”评级。

    We expect a strong 4Q ahead; full-year earnings likely to beat guidance.

  前段时间截止,大家曾经对200多家重视的上市公司应用该模型举行了测量检验与检查,测验结果证实该模型能够很好的推推搡搡大家落到实处个股精选的投资计谋,即采取集镇低估的价值股或然能够预料的缕缕成长的成长股。

公司透露前年三季报,报告期内集团共促成营收3.6亿元,同期比较进步30.1%,完毕归母净利3171.97万元,同比进步23.6%。2017Q3单季度公司落实营收1.38亿元,同期相比较提升58.35%,完毕归母净利758.95万元,同期比较回退8%;扣非后归母净利424.5万元,同期比较减弱48.50%。集团预测前年归母净利同期相比较增进0%-十分之三,对应归母净利5063.11万元-6328.88万元。该业绩臆想不思量珍视资金财产重组事项进行完毕对公司二〇一七年度业绩的熏陶,已蕴含公司二零一七年限制性股票(stock)慰勉安插对商厦二零一七年度绩效的震慑。

Near-term growth to further accelerate; long-term visibility improving.

  这么些模型能够帮助大家将除了银行、保证、房土地资金财产那多少个新鲜的本行之外的装有上市集团,放入二个集结的估价比较的阳台开展分析,使不一样行业、分歧发展阶段的市廛也能有二个二只的可比深入分析。主要优点是思索的较完善,统一性强,利于较标准地对集团进展股票总值判定。

    收购欧神诺,协同效应有不小可能助力发展。公司有关收购欧神诺的重要资金财产重组事项已经获得中国证券监督管理委员会查处通过。欧神诺深耕高等瓷砖领域,为国内一线瓷砖品牌,二零一七年上四个月兑现营收9.08亿元(同期相比较提升34.23%),实现归母净利8221万元(同期相比升高58.四成),业绩增进急忙,公司作为国内亚克力洁具龙头,两个的水渠、顾客群众体育存在协同效应,合併后业绩放量值得期待。

    During our recent visit to Jonhon's Luoyang headquarters (in mid-September),management indicated that new orders for defense and NEV picked up sincethe beginning of 3Q (see our trip takeaway note). However, the actual signingof contracts took place in late 3Q (especially for defense orders, largely due tomilitary reform), which means revenue conversion will likely be skewed towardsthe final quarter. The company guides for a 0-15% NP growth for the full year, thesame wide range they guided for in 1H and 9M. Its track record suggests that thefinal result tends to come in towards the high end of the guided range. For thisyear we expect full-year earnings growth to beat guidance (DBe: 18% yoy) aswe are projecting a 38% earnings growth in 4Q.

  张建宏:首要有三方面:一、通过个股精选进而对具备价值和成长性的股票(stock)进行投资;二、为了越来越好的落到实处个人股精选,借鉴从外方法人代表安盛投资公司援引的公司财务解析和评估价值模型,即“FFM”模型,以作为对个人股精选的注重支撑,通过过去一年里对那么些模型的模拟实验,效果依然较理想的;三、投资上利用相对平衡的行当布局战略,即在行当布局时可是分讲究某一多少个行当,而是均衡地开展示公布局进而减弱危害。

    风险提示:原材质价格大幅上涨、供给小幅度下挫、重大资金财产重组进度不如预期、业绩整合低于预期。

    3Q sales of Rmb1.5bn rose 8% yoy, a visible acceleration from 1H's 1% yoygrowth. High GPM was largely sustained in 3Q, which increased 2.5ppt yoy,leading to a 16% growth in GP. However, this was partially offset by higher opexand finance costs in 3Q. NP was up 13% yoy, which also accelerated from 1H's11% increase. 9M NP amounted to Rmb629m ( 12% yoy), which achieved 73%of our full-year estimate (vs. the historical average of 72% during 2007-16).

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    业绩符合预期,毛利润下滑。公司中报预计1-七月归母净受益增进60%-四分一,实际增进23.6%,符合预期。Q3单季度归母净利同期比较收缩8%、扣非后归母净利同期相比较减弱三分之二,下滑幅度差距非常的大入眼因购买理财产品Q3获得投资净受益289万元(同期相比较升高1314%)影响。集团Q3单季度业绩下落,主要缘由一是三季度因为计提坏账,资金财产减值损失533万元(同期比较进步273%),二是受原材质价格上升影响,公司Q3单季度毛利润28.06%,环比、同期比较分别裁减3.56pct、5.38pct。

    Despite c.40% share price appreciation YTD (vs. SZCOMP: 3%), we see furtherupside potential for Jonhon as re-rating continues to accelerate earnings growthalong with improved visibility. Revenue growth indeed accelerated in 3Q. Withorder momentum picking up and revenue conversion coming through, we expect4Q to deliver 38% NP growth. Looking beyond 2017, the upcoming two roundsof capacity expansions will likely lift its headquarter's capacity by c.50%, andthe new capacity will be mainly used for new products and applications thathave substantial import substitution potential. During the previous capacityexpansion cycle (2014-15), Jonhon delivered earnings CAGR of 50% . We havebeen anticipating an earnings upcycle for the coming three years, and we nowhave higher conviction. We see upside potential to our current assumption of aconstant growth acceleration of 30% towards 2020; maintaining Buy.

    消费进级带来发展新机缘。前段时间随开销进级驱动,开销者对中高等品牌供给日益进级,行当布局迎来变革。公司收购欧神诺,利于切入中高等品牌市镇,迎来新的升华时机。

    Sales growth accelerated; margin expansion continued.

  张建宏:FFM模型是依照中华夏族民共和国上市集团财报的表征,做了几许调度的公司财务和估价模型,可以将上市集团在解除了各类非日常性的杰出收益,举个例子税收、财政补贴、特殊类型等的投资收入后,特地对商家自己持久性的功业举办剖判、相比较和展望,然后再依据商城上对该铺面包车型大巴估价举行相互相比较。

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